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Who wins the election

The Iranian people will be the losers in this election no matter which candidate wins because their votes are not important, according to a senior fellow at a U.S.-based research institute.

In many ways, the outcome of the presidential race after Friday’s vote is a foregone conclusion, said Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

“Iran really has only one important voter … and that’s the supreme leader,” he said, referring to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“So you could say whoever wins, of the candidates that you mentioned … the Iranian people will certainly lose,” he told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Friday.

A spokesperson for the Iran Foreign Ministry wasn’t immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.

Ben Taleblu pointed to anti-government protests in recent years, where demonstrators called for their leaders to resign. They were “not seeking reform, as in years past — but seeking, really, revolution,” he said.

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The frontrunner in the presidential race, Ebrahim Raisi, is “definitely an agent of stasis, not change,” added Ben Taleblu.

Political analysts have been floating hardline judge Raisi’s name as a potential replacement for Khamenei in the future, he said. Raisi, if elected, would be the first serving Iranian president in recent memory to be sanctioned by Washington before entering office — the penalties being placed on him due to his involvement in the mass execution of political prisoners in 1988.

“It’s likely that you’re going to see the Islamic Republic retain its aggression abroad, and repression at home with Raisi at the helm,” he said.

Instead of looking at who wins the election, Ben Taleblu said future U.S. policy should be based on voter turnout, which is expected to be very low.

“It’s not about who is at the helm of the Islamic Republic … it’s about what the Iranian people are signaling towards their state,” he said. “In the past few years, the chasm between state and society could not have gotten any greater.”

Voter turnout is one way to determine whether the Iranian people support their leaders, and that “should make its way into” U.S. policy. 

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